May 2007 Election Results

On May 15th, over thirteen-thousand three-hundred and nineteen registered Philadelphians successfully voted in Phillys Ballot Box, the first Philadelphian citizens election. The most common complaint was that Phillys Ballot Box did not have complete coverage. 293 volunteers worked to make sure every Philadelphian had an opportunity to have their say. The result is a strong political mandate from the people to create a buffer between casinos and homes.

Summary of results

A total of 13,319 successful votes were cast. A successful vote only included registered voters and were cross-referenced with our secure database to assure that each voter only voted once. Security mechanisms were in place to assure the integrity of the process (see Phillys Ballot Box Voting System). No attempts at hacking the system or any malicious activity was registered throughout the process.

Of those who successfully voted, 12,592 voted yes for a 1,500-foot buffer and 727 voted no.

(9,280 unsuccessful attempts were made to cast votes. Of those, 58 failed because they had already voted often from people reloading their browsers. The rest did not match the voters database for whatever reason, either because of incorrectly inputted information, invalid data, poor data entry, or simply were not registered. We estimate approximately one-third were successful in casting their votes. About 2,000 people were never able to cast their votes, most likely because their information never matched with voter registration data.)

How people voted in the citizens election

Voters were offered numerous ways to vote including a voter hotline, a secure online system, and physical ballots. Physical ballot votes included votes at traditional polling locations and at non-polling locations (e.g. Rittenhouse Square, City Hall, Famous Deli, and more).

Phone votes: 843

Online votes: 3,030

Physical Ballot votes: 9,446

- at polling locations: 8,510

- at non-polling locations: 936

Massive turnout

Results per Precinct

Even more telling than the results of the election (95% to 5%) are the number of people who voted in the citizens election. Our turnout was 68.2% of all voters for each precinct. If every person at the official stations who did not vote in the citizens election voted no, the referendum would still pass (see chart).
Since results based on precinct are not public for the May 2007 primary election we compare turnout through two methodologies. The results ranged from 68.2% to 88.2% turnout. We chose the more conservative results.

Bottomline: if this were on the ballot, it would pass by a strong majority. The vast majority of Philadelphians believe there should be a buffer between casinos and homes.

Methodology #1: Compare each polling location to its previous turnout

We compared each of the 43 polling locations (which included 57 precincts) with their turnout from the General Election of 2003, the most recent contested mayoral election. (We did not have access to 1999s primary results.)

In 2003 the total turnout from the 57 precincts we covered was 4.39% of the total election results. For 2007 our 8,510 votes at polling precincts out of 284,585 total votes was 2.99%. Comparing those numbers, we received 68.150% of all votes.

Methodology #2: Compare to average results from each precincts

(This method is less reliable because we chose high turnout precincts and therefore averages would bias in our favor.)

On average 122 people in each precinct voted on the highest turn-out ballot question (question #3 where 196,637 people voted).1 In the citizens election over 149 people per precinct voted (excluding online voting, phone voting, and non-polling locations). More people voted in this election, proportionally, than on the ballot questions! On average 169 people in each precinct voted on the mayoral election. Therefore, according to this methodology, we had an 88.2% turnout.

A Note on Selection of Polling Locations

Polling locations were chosen arbitrarily based on highest turnout. First locations were selected to be in every state house district and then additional were added to cover further neighborhood diversity (six are exceptions which were selected because someone volunteered to staff that location; results are equivalent even excluding those locations). Locations were never picked based on estimates (real or imagined) of how the result would be. Polling locations were staffed from 7am to 8pm (or until closing).

1With 1618 out of 1681 precincts reported. More current numbers are not yet available. Total votes = 196,937 divided by 1,618 precincts = 121.7 per precinct.